astro.wikisort.org - Asteroid

2007 FT₃ (also written 2007 FT3) is a lost asteroid[2] with a short observation arc of 1.2 days that can not be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It has a poorly constrained orbit and has not been seen since 2007. It was first observed on 20 March 2007 when the asteroid was estimated to be 0.19 ± 0.01 AU (28.4 ± 1.5 million km) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 107 degrees. 2007 FT₃ is the fourth largest asteroid with better than a 1-in-2 million cumulative chance of impacting Earth after (29075) 1950 DA, 1979 XB, and 101955 Bennu. With a cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale of -2.93, the poorly known orbit and assumed size place 2007 FT₃ fifth on an unconstrained listing of the Sentry Risk Table.[6]

2007 FT₃

Discovery[1]
Discovered by	Mt. Lemmon Survey
Discovery date	20 March 2007
Designations
MPC designation	2007 FT3
Minor planet category	Lost[2] NEO Apollo PHA[3][4] risk listed[5]
Orbital characteristics[4]
Epoch 21 March 2007 (JD 2454180.5)
Uncertainty parameter 9
Observation arc	1.2 days[5]
Aphelion	1.48±0.02 AU (Q)
Perihelion	0.782±0.007 AU (q)
Semi-major axis	1.13±0.02 AU (a)
Eccentricity	0.308±0.006 (e)
Orbital period (sidereal)	1.2±0.03 years
Average orbital speed	28.4 km/s[lower-alpha 1]
Mean anomaly	298°±3° (M)
Inclination	26.9°±0.43° (i)
Longitude of ascending node	9.9°±0.2° (Ω)
Argument of perihelion	277°±2° (ω)
Earth MOID	0.01 AU (1.5 million km) ?
Jupiter MOID	3.83 AU (573 million km) ?
Physical characteristics
Dimensions	~340 m (1,100 ft)?[5] 270–590 meters
Absolute magnitude (H)	20?[4]

2013 virtual impactor

The 2 October 2013 virtual impactor did not occur.[5] The uncertainty region of ± 330 million kilometers wrapped around a large portion of the asteroid's orbit so that the asteroid could have been numerous different distances from the Earth.

2019 virtual impactor

The 3 October 2019 virtual impactor did not occur. The poorly constrained nominal orbit suggested that the closest approach the asteroid would make to Earth in 2019 was in late March at a distance of 0.14 AU (21,000,000 km; 13,000,000 mi).[7] But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid was hundreds of millions of kilometers long.

There was an estimated 1 in 11 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 3 October 2019.[5] The nominal JPL Horizons 3 October 2019 Earth distance was 0.93 AU (139,000,000 km; 86,000,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 620 million km.[8] NEODyS listed the nominal 3 October 2019 Earth distance as 0.95 AU (142,000,000 km; 88,000,000 mi).[7]

2024 virtual impactor

The nominal orbit suggests that closest approach the asteroid will make to Earth in 2024 will not be until the end of December when it may be ~1 AU from Earth (the same distance the Sun is from Earth).[9] But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid is hundreds of millions of kilometers long.[10]

With a short 1.2 day observation arc, the Sentry Risk Table shows an estimated 1 in 11 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 2 October 2024,[5] which is 1,900 times lower than the background threat.[lower-alpha 2] The nominal JPL Horizons 2 October 2024 Earth distance is 1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 500 million km.[10] NEODyS lists the nominal 2 October 2024 Earth distance as 1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi).[9]

Virtual impactors (past and future)[5]

Date	Impact probability (1 in)	JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU)	NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU)	MPC[11] nominal geocentric distance (AU)	Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU)	uncertainty[8] region
2013-10-02	1.9 billion	0.94 AU (141 million km)	1.0 AU (150 million km)	1.1 AU (160 million km)	1.2 AU (180 million km)	± 330 million km
2019-10-03	11 million	0.93 AU (139 million km)	0.95 AU (142 million km)[7]	1.3 AU (190 million km)	1.4 AU (210 million km)	± 620 million km
2024-10-02	11 million	1.7 AU (250 million km)[10]	1.7 AU (250 million km)[9]	2.0 AU (300 million km)[11]	2.0 AU (300 million km)[12]	± 500 million km[10]

See also

• 1979 XB
• 2014 MV67

Notes

References

External links

• 2007 FT3 at NeoDyS-2, Near Earth Objects—Dynamic Site
  • Ephemeris · Obs prediction · Orbital info · MOID · Proper elements · Obs info · Close · Physical info · NEOCC
• 2007 FT3 at ESA–space situational awareness
  • Ephemerides · Observations · Orbit · Physical Properties · Summary
• 2007 FT3 at the JPL Small-Body Database
  • Close approach · Discovery · Ephemeris · Orbit diagram · Orbital elements · Physical parameters

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